HALLANDALE BEACH, FL – There’s a sense of anticipation in the Gulfstream Park paddock this Saturday as Strategic Risk, the John Oxley homebred who dazzled on debut but struggled through a challenging summer at Saratoga, prepares to reclaim his winning form in the $200,000 Affirmed Stakes.
The 2-year-old colt, by Grade 1-winning millionaire Noble Bird, burst onto the scene with an 8 ¼-length maiden victory against Florida-breds over five furlongs at Gulfstream in June. That performance earned him a stint with trainer Mark Casse up in New York, where he found the competition—and the turf—less forgiving. Strategic Risk finished last of six in the 1 1/16-mile With Anticipation (G3) at Saratoga, a race won by Final Score, who later triumphed in Keeneland’s Bourbon (G2).
“We tried him at Saratoga, and it wasn’t very successful, so we brought him home,” Casse said. “He’s been training really well, so we sent him down. The one-hole isn’t ideal, but Rajiv [Maragh] knows him well. If he breaks well, he’ll be close.”
The Affirmed, named after the Florida-bred 1978 Triple Crown winner, is the middle leg of the $1.2 million Florida Sire Stakes series for 2-year-olds by accredited Florida stallions. The seven-furlong sprint features 11 entrants, including Strategic Risk, four runners who finished second through sixth in the opening leg Dr. Fager, and five newcomers.
Among the contenders are Jose D’Angelo trainees Micanopy and Khozalite. Micanopy, the only horse in the field with a win at the course and distance, comes off a three-quarters-of-a-length victory over state-breds on Sept. 13 and will be guided by Edgard Zayas. Khozalite, who recently captured a one-mile turf maiden, returns under Leonel Reyes. Both are expected to challenge for the lead in a race that promises an exciting sprint showdown.
Other entrants include Camigol, making his return to Gulfstream after a respectable third in the Saratoga Special (G2), and Dr. Fager finishers Trelawny, All to Win, Squire, and I’m Tuff Enough, along with maiden winners Wootun, He’s My Uncle, and Hawk.
For Strategic Risk, Saturday represents more than a race—it’s a chance to prove that his early promise was no fluke. With pedigree, past form, and a steady hand in Rajiv Maragh, his connections are quietly hopeful. “It’s a lot of money, and I’ve always felt he was a little better than what we’ve seen so far,” Casse said. “Maybe he’ll get back to his winning ways.”
Stay tuned to RaceBuzz for live updates, results, and expert analysis from the $200,000 Affirmed Stakes at Gulfstream Park!
